Sekirovo Rakovski v Sayana Haskovo prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Sekirovo Rakovski 2–3 Sayana Haskovo SAYANA HASKOVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sayana Haskovo win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.535

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sayana Haskovo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sekirovo Rakovski 35%, draw 25%, Sayana Haskovo 41%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sekirovo Rakovski v Sayana HaskovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sekirovo Rakovski win35%

Draw25%

Sayana Haskovo win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sekirovo Rakovski

Sayana Haskovo

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 11 Oct · Third League - Southeast

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sayana haskovo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Sayana Haskovo a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sekirovo Rakovski v Sayana Haskovo~~1.30 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 18~~16 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sayana Haskovo win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sekirovo Rakovski win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Sayana Haskovo win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Sekirovo Rakovski or draw	59%	–	–
Sekirovo Rakovski clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sayana Haskovo clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.8 9.9 6.7 3.3 1 9.0 11.4 8.2 3.9 2 5.5 7.5 5.2 2.5 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sekirovo Rakovski down, Sayana Haskovo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sekirovo Rakovski at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sayana Haskovo away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Sekirovo Rakovski, 1.43 for Sayana Haskovo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SEK 1–1 SAY · SAY 2–0 SEK · SAY 3–1 SEK · SEK 2–2 SAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

SEKIROVO RAKOVSKI

LLLWLD1–2 · 0–4 · 1–6 · 5–3 · 2–3 · 3–3

SAYANA HASKOVO

LDWWWD1–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3