Sekirovo Rakovski v Maritsa Plovdiv prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sekirovo RakovskiDrawMaritsa Plovdiv

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Maritsa Plovdiv 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maritsa Plovdiv are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sekirovo Rakovski 36%, draw 22%, Maritsa Plovdiv 42%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sekirovo Rakovski v Maritsa PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sekirovo Rakovski win36%

Draw22%

Maritsa Plovdiv win42%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundSoutheast · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sekirovo Rakovski

Maritsa Plovdiv

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	−8	8
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maritsa plovdiv winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Maritsa Plovdiv a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sekirovo Rakovski v Maritsa Plovdiv~~1.62 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~17 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sekirovo Rakovski win	36%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Maritsa Plovdiv win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Sekirovo Rakovski or draw	58%	–	–
Sekirovo Rakovski clean sheet	18%	–	–
Maritsa Plovdiv clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.7 6.9 5.6 3.3 1 6.1 9.3 8.2 4.8 2.1 2 4.5 7.3 6.2 3.6 3 2.4 4.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sekirovo Rakovski down, Maritsa Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,892 Third League - Southeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sekirovo Rakovski at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Maritsa Plovdiv away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Sekirovo Rakovski, 1.74 for Maritsa Plovdiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SEK 0–1 MAR · MAR 4–1 SEK · MAR 2–0 SEK · SEK 3–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept

SEKIROVO RAKOVSKI

WLDLLL5–3 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 3–4

MARITSA PLOVDIV

LLLDWW0–2 · 3–5 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	12	+28	36
2	Maritsa Milevo	12	+15	28
3	Spartak Plovdiv	11	+13	27
4	Neftochimic Burgas	11	+8	22
5	Sayana Haskovo	12	+8	22
6	Yambol 1915	12	+15	20
7	Rodopa Smolyan	12	0	20
8	Gigant Saedinenie	12	+3	19
9	Sozopol	12	+1	16
10	Rozova dolina	12	0	16
11	Dimitrovgrad	12	+1	14
12	Zagorets	12	−9	14
13	Botev Plovdiv II	12	−5	11
14	Maritsa Plovdiv	11	−8	8
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	12	−21	8
16	Atletik Kuklen	11	−16	7
17	Sekirovo Rakovski	12	−14	6
18	Levski Karlovo	12	−19	6