Sayana Haskovo v Maritsa Milevo prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Sayana Haskovo 2–2 Maritsa Milevo SAYANA HASKOVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sayana Haskovo win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sayana Haskovo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sayana Haskovo 38%, draw 26%, Maritsa Milevo 36%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sayana Haskovo v Maritsa MilevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sayana Haskovo win38%

Draw26%

Maritsa Milevo win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sayana Haskovo

Maritsa Milevo

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sayana haskovo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Sayana Haskovo a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sayana Haskovo v Maritsa Milevo~~1.25 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 27~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sayana Haskovo win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sayana Haskovo win	38%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Sayana Haskovo or draw	64%	–	–
Sayana Haskovo clean sheet	31%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.7 10.8 6.3 2.6 1 11.1 12.0 7.4 3.1 2 6.7 7.7 4.6 3 2.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sayana Haskovo down, Maritsa Milevo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sayana Haskovo at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Maritsa Milevo away: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Sayana Haskovo, 1.21 for Maritsa Milevo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAY 0–1 MAR · MAR 4–1 SAY · SAY 0–1 MAR · MAR 2–1 SAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept

SAYANA HASKOVO

WWWDWL2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2

MARITSA MILEVO

WLWWWW2–1 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 4–2 · 4–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5