Rozova dolina v Sekirovo Rakovski prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Rozova dolina 4–3 Sekirovo Rakovski ROZOVA DOLINA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rozova dolina win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rozova dolina are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rozova dolina 60%, draw 20%, Sekirovo Rakovski 19%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Rozova dolina v Sekirovo RakovskiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rozova dolina win60%

Draw20%

Sekirovo Rakovski win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rozova dolina

Sekirovo Rakovski

7Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rozova dolina winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Rozova dolina a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rozova dolina v Sekirovo Rakovski~~2.06 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~10 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rozova dolina win

Published at 58%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rozova dolina win	60%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Sekirovo Rakovski win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Rozova dolina or draw	81%	–	–
Rozova dolina clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sekirovo Rakovski clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.0%

0123450 4.8 5.3 2.6 1 10.0 9.3 4.9 2 9.5 9.3 4.8 3 6.4 6.3 3.2 4 3.4 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rozova dolina down, Sekirovo Rakovski across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rozova dolina at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sekirovo Rakovski away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Rozova dolina, 1.04 for Sekirovo Rakovski. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SEK 0–1 ROZ · ROZ 2–1 SEK · ROZ 2–0 SEK · SEK 0–3 ROZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept

ROZOVA DOLINA

DWDDLD1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 0–0

SEKIROVO RAKOVSKI

LWLDLL1–6 · 5–3 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5