Rodopa Smolyan v Gigant Saedinenie prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Rodopa Smolyan 1–0 Gigant Saedinenie RODOPA SMOLYAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rodopa Smolyan win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.490

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rodopa Smolyan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodopa Smolyan 43%, draw 22%, Gigant Saedinenie 35%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Rodopa Smolyan v Gigant SaedinenieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Rodopa Smolyan win43%

Draw22%

Gigant Saedinenie win35%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 9

VenueStadion Septemvri

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodopa Smolyan

Gigant Saedinenie

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gigant Saedinenie	10	+3	16
9	Rodopa Smolyan	10	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodopa smolyan winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Rodopa Smolyan a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodopa Smolyan v Gigant Saedinenie~~1.84 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 16~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodopa Smolyan win	43%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Gigant Saedinenie win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Rodopa Smolyan or draw	65%	–	–
Rodopa Smolyan clean sheet	21%	–	–
Gigant Saedinenie clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 5.7 4.3 2.3 1 6.4 9.1 7.2 3.9 2 5.4 8.1 6.3 3.5 3 3.2 4.9 3.9 2.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodopa Smolyan down, Gigant Saedinenie across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,877 Third League - Southeast matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.7% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodopa Smolyan at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gigant Saedinenie away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Rodopa Smolyan, 1.63 for Gigant Saedinenie. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GIG 1–2 ROD · ROD 3–2 GIG · ROD 0–1 GIG · GIG 2–0 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept

RODOPA SMOLYAN

DDWLWL0–0 · 1–1 · 5–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–5

GIGANT SAEDINENIE

WLWLWL1–0 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	10	+21	30
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	10	+10	21
5	Yambol 1915	10	+14	17
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
7	Gigant Saedinenie	10	+3	16
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Rodopa Smolyan	10	−2	14
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
12	Botev Plovdiv II	10	−2	11
13	Zagorets	10	−10	10
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	10	−15	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	10	−12	6
17	Levski Karlovo	10	−14	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5