Rodopa Smolyan v Atletik Kuklen prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Rodopa Smolyan 1–0 Atletik Kuklen RODOPA SMOLYAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rodopa Smolyan win~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.139

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rodopa Smolyan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodopa Smolyan 70%, draw 16%, Atletik Kuklen 15%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Rodopa Smolyan v Atletik KuklenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rodopa Smolyan win70%

Draw16%

Atletik Kuklen win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

VenueStadion Septemvri

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodopa Smolyan

Atletik Kuklen

3Days since last match14

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodopa smolyan winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Rodopa Smolyan a 70% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rodopa Smolyan v Atletik Kuklen~~2.77 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 7~~7 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rodopa Smolyan win

Published at 71%, 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rodopa Smolyan win	70%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Atletik Kuklen win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Rodopa Smolyan or draw	85%	–	–
Rodopa Smolyan clean sheet	33%	–	–
Atletik Kuklen clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.3 3.0 1 6.3 6.5 3.8 2 7.6 8.4 4.8 3 6.6 7.2 4.1 4 4.5 4.9 2.8 5 2.7 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Rodopa Smolyan down, Atletik Kuklen across0–5 goals a side shown (91.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rodopa Smolyan at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atletik Kuklen away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.77 goals for Rodopa Smolyan, 1.15 for Atletik Kuklen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ROD 4–0 ATL · ATL 0–2 ROD · ROD 1–2 ATL · ATL 2–1 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept

RODOPA SMOLYAN

DWLWLW1–1 · 5–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–5 · 1–0

ATLETIK KUKLEN

WLLLDL1–0 · 3–4 · 0–7 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5