Neftochimic Burgas v Sayana Haskovo prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Neftochimic Burgas 2–0 Sayana Haskovo NEFTOCHIMIC BURGAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Neftochimic Burgas win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neftochimic Burgas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neftochimic Burgas 54%, draw 24%, Sayana Haskovo 22%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Neftochimic Burgas v Sayana HaskovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Neftochimic Burgas win54%

Draw24%

Sayana Haskovo win22%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 9

Venueefbet Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neftochimic Burgas

Sayana Haskovo

5Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sayana Haskovo	10	+10	21
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neftochimic burgas winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Neftochimic Burgas a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neftochimic Burgas v Sayana Haskovo~~1.69 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 21~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neftochimic Burgas win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Sayana Haskovo win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Neftochimic Burgas or draw	78%	–	–
Neftochimic Burgas clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sayana Haskovo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 7.5 7.4 3.4 1 12.5 10.9 5.3 2 9.9 9.1 4.3 3 5.6 5.1 2.4 4 2.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neftochimic Burgas down, Sayana Haskovo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,877 Third League - Southeast matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.7% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neftochimic Burgas at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sayana Haskovo away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Neftochimic Burgas, 0.95 for Sayana Haskovo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NEF 0–0 SAY · SAY 1–2 NEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

NEFTOCHIMIC BURGAS

LLWWWW2–4 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

SAYANA HASKOVO

DWWWDW0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	10	+21	30
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	10	+10	21
5	Yambol 1915	10	+14	17
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
7	Gigant Saedinenie	10	+3	16
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Rodopa Smolyan	10	−2	14
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
12	Botev Plovdiv II	10	−2	11
13	Zagorets	10	−10	10
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	10	−15	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	10	−12	6
17	Levski Karlovo	10	−14	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5