Neftochimic Burgas v Maritsa Plovdiv prediction · Third League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Neftochimic Burgas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neftochimic Burgas 58%, draw 21%, Maritsa Plovdiv 21%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Neftochimic Burgas v Maritsa PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Neftochimic Burgas win58%

Draw21%

Maritsa Plovdiv win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

Venueefbet Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neftochimic Burgas

Maritsa Plovdiv

1Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neftochimic burgas winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Neftochimic Burgas a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neftochimic Burgas v Maritsa Plovdiv~~1.98 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 16 v 5~~7 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neftochimic Burgas win	58%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Maritsa Plovdiv win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Neftochimic Burgas or draw	79%	–	–
Neftochimic Burgas clean sheet	37%	–	–
Maritsa Plovdiv clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.1%

0123450 5.2 5.9 3.0 1 10.1 9.6 5.2 2 9.2 9.0 4.7 3 6.1 5.8 3.0 4 3.3 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neftochimic Burgas down, Maritsa Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neftochimic Burgas at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Maritsa Plovdiv away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Neftochimic Burgas, 1.04 for Maritsa Plovdiv. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MAR 4–0 NEF · NEF 0–1 MAR · NEF 3–4 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

NEFTOCHIMIC BURGAS

LLWWWW2–4 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

MARITSA PLOVDIV

LLLLDW0–1 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3