Maritsa Plovdiv v Botev Plovdiv II prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maritsa PlovdivDrawBotev Plovdiv II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Maritsa Plovdiv 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maritsa Plovdiv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maritsa Plovdiv 57%, draw 20%, Botev Plovdiv II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Maritsa Plovdiv v Botev Plovdiv IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Maritsa Plovdiv win57%

Draw20%

Botev Plovdiv II win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

VenueMaritsa stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maritsa Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv II

14Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maritsa plovdiv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Maritsa Plovdiv a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maritsa Plovdiv v Botev Plovdiv II~~2.03 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~18 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Maritsa Plovdiv win

Published at 54%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maritsa Plovdiv win	57%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Botev Plovdiv II win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Maritsa Plovdiv or draw	78%	–	–
Maritsa Plovdiv clean sheet	32%	–	–
Botev Plovdiv II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 4.3 5.4 3.0 1 8.8 9.1 5.4 2.2 2 8.3 9.1 5.2 2.1 3 5.7 6.3 3.6 4 3.0 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maritsa Plovdiv down, Botev Plovdiv II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maritsa Plovdiv at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Botev Plovdiv II away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Maritsa Plovdiv, 1.17 for Botev Plovdiv II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–1 BOT · BOT 1–0 MAR · BOT 2–2 MAR · MAR 1–2 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 5 Sept

MARITSA PLOVDIV

LLLLDW0–1 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–0

BOTEV PLOVDIV II

DDWDDL2–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5