Maritsa Milevo v Yambol 1915 prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Maritsa Milevo 2–1 Yambol 1915 MARITSA MILEVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Maritsa Milevo win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maritsa Milevo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maritsa Milevo 58%, draw 21%, Yambol 1915 22%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Maritsa Milevo v Yambol 1915Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Maritsa Milevo win58%

Draw21%

Yambol 1915 win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maritsa Milevo

Yambol 1915

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maritsa milevo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Maritsa Milevo a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maritsa Milevo v Yambol 1915~~2.05 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 17~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maritsa Milevo win	58%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Yambol 1915 win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo or draw	78%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo clean sheet	33%	–	–
Yambol 1915 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 4.5 5.4 2.9 1 9.1 9.3 5.3 2.1 2 8.5 9.2 5.1 2.0 3 5.7 6.1 3.4 4 3.0 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maritsa Milevo down, Yambol 1915 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maritsa Milevo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Yambol 1915 away: 3.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Maritsa Milevo, 1.13 for Yambol 1915. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~YAM 1–0 MAR · MAR 0–1 YAM · MAR 2–2 YAM · YAM 2–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

MARITSA MILEVO

WWLWWW4–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 4–2 · 4–0

YAMBOL 1915

WWWWLD5–1 · 5–1 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 0–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3