Maritsa Milevo v Rozova dolina prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maritsa MilevoDrawRozova dolina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Maritsa Milevo 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maritsa Milevo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Maritsa Milevo 72%, draw 17%, Rozova dolina 12%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Maritsa Milevo v Rozova dolinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Maritsa Milevo win72%

Draw17%

Rozova dolina win12%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundSoutheast · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maritsa Milevo

Rozova dolina

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · maritsa milevo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Maritsa Milevo a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maritsa Milevo v Rozova dolina~~2.44 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 13~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maritsa Milevo win	72%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Rozova dolina win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo or draw	88%	–	–
Maritsa Milevo clean sheet	47%	–	–
Rozova dolina clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 4.7 4.1 1 10.6 7.7 3.2 2 11.4 8.6 3.4 3 8.8 6.5 2.5 4 5.5 4.0 5 3.0 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Maritsa Milevo down, Rozova dolina across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,892 Third League - Southeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maritsa Milevo at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rozova dolina away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for Maritsa Milevo, 0.77 for Rozova dolina. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ROZ 0–0 MAR · MAR 1–1 ROZ · MAR 0–0 ROZ · ROZ 2–0 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 19 Sept

MARITSA MILEVO

LWWWWD0–4 · 5–0 · 4–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

ROZOVA DOLINA

WDDLDW2–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5