Lokomotiv Plovdiv II v Sozopol prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1–2 Sozopol SOZOPOL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sozopol win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sozopol are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 34%, draw 23%, Sozopol 43%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotiv Plovdiv II v SozopolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win34%

Draw23%

Sozopol win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Sozopol

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sozopol winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sozopol a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotiv Plovdiv II v Sozopol~~1.36 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~14 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Sozopol win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw	57%	–	–
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sozopol clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.6 8.8 6.4 3.5 1 8.1 10.6 8.1 4.3 2 5.3 7.4 5.4 2.8 3 2.5 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv Plovdiv II down, Sozopol across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sozopol away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv II, 1.58 for Sozopol. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LOK 0–0 SOZ · SOZ 3–0 LOK · SOZ 3–1 LOK · LOK 2–1 SOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV II

WDLLLL2–0 · 2–2 · 3–5 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 0–3

SOZOPOL

LWDWLL0–1 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3