Levski Karlovo v Spartak Plovdiv prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Levski Karlovo 1–3 Spartak Plovdiv SPARTAK PLOVDIV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Plovdiv win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Plovdiv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levski Karlovo 33%, draw 20%, Spartak Plovdiv 46%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Levski Karlovo v Spartak PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Levski Karlovo win33%

Draw20%

Spartak Plovdiv win46%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levski Karlovo

Spartak Plovdiv

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 18 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
17	Levski Karlovo	10	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak plovdiv winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Spartak Plovdiv a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levski Karlovo v Spartak Plovdiv~~1.70 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 24~~17 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartak Plovdiv win

Published at 49%, 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levski Karlovo win	33%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Spartak Plovdiv win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Levski Karlovo or draw	54%	–	–
Levski Karlovo clean sheet	14%	–	–
Spartak Plovdiv clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.6 5.6 5.2 3.4 1 4.6 8.2 8.1 5.4 2.8 2 3.6 6.7 6.5 4.4 2.3 3 2.0 3.8 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levski Karlovo down, Spartak Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,877 Third League - Southeast matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.7% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levski Karlovo at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Plovdiv away: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Levski Karlovo, 2.02 for Spartak Plovdiv. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SPA 1–3 LEV · LEV 1–0 SPA · SPA 5–0 LEV · LEV 0–2 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

LEVSKI KARLOVO

LLLWLW1–5 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0

SPARTAK PLOVDIV

WWWLWW2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	10	+21	30
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	10	+10	21
5	Yambol 1915	10	+14	17
6	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
7	Gigant Saedinenie	10	+3	16
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Rodopa Smolyan	10	−2	14
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
12	Botev Plovdiv II	10	−2	11
13	Zagorets	10	−10	10
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	10	−15	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	10	−12	6
17	Levski Karlovo	10	−14	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5