Levski Karlovo v Gigant Saedinenie prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Levski Karlovo 3–0 Gigant Saedinenie GIGANT SAEDINENIE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gigant Saedinenie win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.644

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gigant Saedinenie are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levski Karlovo 36%, draw 22%, Gigant Saedinenie 43%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Levski Karlovo v Gigant SaedinenieBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Levski Karlovo win36%

Draw22%

Gigant Saedinenie win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levski Karlovo

Gigant Saedinenie

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 11 Oct · Third League - Southeast

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gigant saedinenie winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Gigant Saedinenie a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levski Karlovo v Gigant Saedinenie~~1.61 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 16~~18 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gigant Saedinenie win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levski Karlovo win	36%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Gigant Saedinenie win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Levski Karlovo or draw	57%	–	–
Levski Karlovo clean sheet	18%	–	–
Gigant Saedinenie clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.6 6.6 5.3 3.2 1 6.2 9.2 8.0 4.7 2.3 2 4.6 7.4 6.2 3.7 3 2.4 4.0 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levski Karlovo down, Gigant Saedinenie across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levski Karlovo at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gigant Saedinenie away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Levski Karlovo, 1.80 for Gigant Saedinenie. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEV 3–2 GIG · GIG 1–0 LEV · GIG 3–0 LEV · LEV 1–0 GIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

LEVSKI KARLOVO

LLLLWL0–2 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

GIGANT SAEDINENIE

WWLWLW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3