Levski Karlovo v Dimitrovgrad prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Levski KarlovoDrawDimitrovgrad

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Levski Karlovo 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levski Karlovo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levski Karlovo 53%, draw 21%, Dimitrovgrad 27%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Levski Karlovo v DimitrovgradBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Levski Karlovo win53%

Draw21%

Dimitrovgrad win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levski Karlovo

Dimitrovgrad

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Southeast

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levski karlovo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Levski Karlovo a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levski Karlovo v Dimitrovgrad~~2.04 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~17 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Levski Karlovo win

Published at 54%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levski Karlovo win	53%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Dimitrovgrad win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Levski Karlovo or draw	73%	–	–
Levski Karlovo clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dimitrovgrad clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.5 5.1 3.2 1 7.3 8.9 6.1 2.9 2 6.9 8.9 6.0 2.8 3 4.6 6.0 4.0 4 2.4 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Levski Karlovo down, Dimitrovgrad across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,883 Third League - Southeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levski Karlovo at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dimitrovgrad away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Levski Karlovo, 1.38 for Dimitrovgrad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIM 2–2 LEV · LEV 1–0 DIM · LEV 2–1 DIM · DIM 2–0 LEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 12 Sept

LEVSKI KARLOVO

LLWLWL0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 1–3

DIMITROVGRAD

LLDDLW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	+27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	+15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	+14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	+8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	+16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	+7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	−1	17
8	Sozopol	11	+2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	+2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	−1	13
11	Zagorets	11	−9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	−2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	−4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	−21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	−13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	−16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5