Dimitrovgrad v Rodopa Smolyan prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Dimitrovgrad 5–1 Rodopa Smolyan DIMITROVGRAD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dimitrovgrad win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.461

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dimitrovgrad are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dimitrovgrad 45%, draw 22%, Rodopa Smolyan 33%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Dimitrovgrad v Rodopa SmolyanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dimitrovgrad win45%

Draw22%

Rodopa Smolyan win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dimitrovgrad

Rodopa Smolyan

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dimitrovgrad winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Dimitrovgrad a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dimitrovgrad v Rodopa Smolyan~~1.77 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~13 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dimitrovgrad win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Rodopa Smolyan win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Dimitrovgrad or draw	67%	–	–
Dimitrovgrad clean sheet	24%	–	–
Rodopa Smolyan clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.0 6.3 4.3 2.2 1 7.5 9.7 7.1 3.6 2 6.2 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 3.6 5.0 3.6 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dimitrovgrad down, Rodopa Smolyan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dimitrovgrad at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rodopa Smolyan away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Dimitrovgrad, 1.48 for Rodopa Smolyan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ROD 2–1 DIM · DIM 3–2 ROD · ROD 0–0 DIM · DIM 2–2 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

DIMITROVGRAD

WLLDDL2–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

RODOPA SMOLYAN

LDDWLW1–5 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–3 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3