Botev Plovdiv II v Rozova dolina prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Botev Plovdiv II 0–0 Rozova dolina BOTEV PLOVDIV II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Botev Plovdiv II win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Botev Plovdiv II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Botev Plovdiv II 63%, draw 19%, Rozova dolina 19%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Botev Plovdiv II v Rozova dolinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Botev Plovdiv II win63%

Draw19%

Rozova dolina win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

VenueNikola Shterev - Starika Sports Complex

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Botev Plovdiv II

Rozova dolina

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Third League - Southeast

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botev plovdiv ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Botev Plovdiv II a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Botev Plovdiv II v Rozova dolina~~2.34 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~11 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Botev Plovdiv II win	63%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Rozova dolina win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Botev Plovdiv II or draw	81%	–	–
Botev Plovdiv II clean sheet	34%	–	–
Rozova dolina clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.6 4.4 2.3 1 8.1 8.2 4.7 2 8.3 8.9 5.0 3 6.2 6.5 3.6 4 3.7 3.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Botev Plovdiv II down, Rozova dolina across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Botev Plovdiv II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rozova dolina away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for Botev Plovdiv II, 1.12 for Rozova dolina. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROZ 0–1 BOT · BOT 0–2 ROZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

BOTEV PLOVDIV II

LLDDWD2–4 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

ROZOVA DOLINA

LDWDDL0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3