Atletik Kuklen v Spartak Plovdiv prediction · Third League

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Spartak Plovdiv are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletik Kuklen 22%, draw 18%, Spartak Plovdiv 59%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Atletik Kuklen v Spartak PlovdivBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Atletik Kuklen win22%

Draw18%

Spartak Plovdiv win59%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundSoutheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletik Kuklen

Spartak Plovdiv

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Southeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak plovdiv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Spartak Plovdiv a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.5, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletik Kuklen v Spartak Plovdiv~~1.44 – 2.47

~~Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 24~~15 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletik Kuklen win	22%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Spartak Plovdiv win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Atletik Kuklen or draw	41%	–	–
Atletik Kuklen clean sheet	10%	–	–
Spartak Plovdiv clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.4%

0123450 2.2 5.7 6.2 4.9 3.1 1 3.5 7.1 8.4 6.6 4.1 2.12 2.3 5.1 5.8 4.6 2.9 3 2.5 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletik Kuklen down, Spartak Plovdiv across0–5 goals a side shown (94.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,870 Third League - Southeast matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Southeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletik Kuklen at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Plovdiv away: 2.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Atletik Kuklen, 2.47 for Spartak Plovdiv. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–4 SPA · SPA 0–1 ATL · SPA 4–0 ATL · SPA 0–1 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Southeast this season · since 29 Aug

ATLETIK KUKLEN

WLLLDL1–0 · 3–4 · 0–7 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–3

SPARTAK PLOVDIV

WWWLWW2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Levski Krumovgrad	9	+20	27
2	Maritsa Milevo	10	+14	24
3	Spartak Plovdiv	9	+12	24
4	Sayana Haskovo	9	+9	18
5	Yambol 1915	9	+15	17
6	Gigant Saedinenie	9	+6	16
7	Neftochimic Burgas	9	+5	16
8	Rodopa Smolyan	9	+2	14
9	Sozopol	10	+1	13
10	Rozova dolina	10	−1	12
11	Botev Plovdiv II	9	−2	10
12	Zagorets	9	−9	10
13	Dimitrovgrad	10	−6	8
14	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	9	−14	7
15	Atletik Kuklen	10	−15	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	9	−11	6
17	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	−9	5
18	Levski Karlovo	9	−17	3