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Yantra Polski Trambesh v Lokomotiv Mezdra

Yantra Polski Trambesh

2–2Full time

Lokomotiv Mezdra

Third League - Northwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Yantra Polski Trambesh 2–2 Lokomotiv Mezdra LOKOMOTIV MEZDRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotiv Mezdra win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.038

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Yantra Polski Trambesh win25%

Draw19%

Lokomotiv Mezdra win56%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv mezdra winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Lokomotiv Mezdra a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yantra Polski Trambesh win	25%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Lokomotiv Mezdra win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw	44%	–	–
Yantra Polski Trambesh clean sheet	12%	–	–
Lokomotiv Mezdra clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.7%

0123450 2.6 6.8 6.7 4.9 2.9 1 4.6 7.9 8.7 6.3 3.6 2 2.8 5.7 6.0 4.3 2.4 3 2.7 2.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yantra Polski Trambesh down, Lokomotiv Mezdra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,016 Third League - Northwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Mezdra away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Yantra Polski Trambesh, 2.23 for Lokomotiv Mezdra. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOK 5–3 YAN · YAN 2–2 LOK · YAN 2–0 LOK · LOK 1–1 YAN

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest

YANTRA POLSKI TRAMBESH

DWDLDW0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

LOKOMOTIV MEZDRA

DWWDWD2–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	6	+8	14
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	6	+8	12
3	Bdin	6	+1	9
4	Kom Berkovitsa	6	0	9
5	Yantra Polski Trambesh	5	+2	8
6	Sevlievo	5	+2	8
7	Chavdar Troyan	5	0	8
8	Partizan	5	0	6
9	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
10	Spartak Pleven II	6	−6	5
11	Pavlikeni	6	−6	3
12	Etar VT II	4	−4	1
13	Juventus Malchika	1	−3	0