Spartak Pleven II v Yantra Polski Trambesh prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Spartak Pleven II 5–5 Yantra Polski Trambesh YANTRA POLSKI TRAMBESH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yantra Polski Trambesh win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.998

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Yantra Polski Trambesh just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Pleven II 40%, draw 18%, Yantra Polski Trambesh 41%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Pleven II v Yantra Polski TrambeshBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Pleven II win40%

Draw18%

Yantra Polski Trambesh win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Pleven II

Yantra Polski Trambesh

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Third League - Northwest

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	7	+9	12
11	Spartak Pleven II	7	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yantra polski trambesh winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Yantra Polski Trambesh a 41% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.2, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Pleven II v Yantra Polski Trambesh~~2.21 – 2.25

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~11 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yantra Polski Trambesh win

Published at 34%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Pleven II win	40%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Yantra Polski Trambesh win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Spartak Pleven II or draw	59%	–	–
Spartak Pleven II clean sheet	12%	–	–
Yantra Polski Trambesh clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.5%

0123450 3.3 3.2 2.3 1 3.3 5.8 6.3 4.6 2.6 2 3.1 6.3 6.5 4.7 2.7 3 2.2 4.5 4.7 3.4 4 2.5 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Pleven II down, Yantra Polski Trambesh across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,021 Third League - Northwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Spartak Pleven II at home: 1.00 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Yantra Polski Trambesh away: 1.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Spartak Pleven II, 2.25 for Yantra Polski Trambesh. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug

SPARTAK PLEVEN II

DLLLWL2–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 3–9

YANTRA POLSKI TRAMBESH

WDLDWD3–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	7	+10	17
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	7	+8	13
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	7	+9	12
4	Partizan	7	+5	12
5	Kom Berkovitsa	7	0	10
6	Sevlievo	6	+2	9
7	Bdin	6	+1	9
8	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
9	Etar VT II	6	+5	7
10	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
11	Spartak Pleven II	7	−12	5
12	Pavlikeni	7	−8	3
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0