Sevlievo v Akademik Svishtov prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Sevlievo 1–1 Akademik Svishtov SEVLIEVO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sevlievo win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.751

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sevlievo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sevlievo 40%, draw 29%, Akademik Svishtov 31%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Sevlievo v Akademik SvishtovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sevlievo win40%

Draw29%

Akademik Svishtov win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 9

VenueRakovski Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sevlievo

Akademik Svishtov

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northwest

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sevlievo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Sevlievo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sevlievo v Akademik Svishtov~~1.10 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sevlievo win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Akademik Svishtov win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Sevlievo or draw	69%	–	–
Sevlievo clean sheet	40%	–	–
Akademik Svishtov clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 13.6 12.9 5.6 1 14.8 12.0 5.9 2 7.7 7.0 3.3 3 3.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sevlievo down, Akademik Svishtov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,021 Third League - Northwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sevlievo at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Akademik Svishtov away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Sevlievo, 0.93 for Akademik Svishtov. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~AKA 0–1 SEV · SEV 0–0 AKA · SEV 1–0 AKA · AKA 2–0 SEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug

SEVLIEVO

DDWWLD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

AKADEMIK SVISHTOV

WWDWWW3–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	7	+10	17
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	7	+8	13
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	7	+9	12
4	Partizan	7	+5	12
5	Kom Berkovitsa	7	0	10
6	Sevlievo	6	+2	9
7	Bdin	6	+1	9
8	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
9	Etar VT II	6	+5	7
10	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
11	Spartak Pleven II	7	−12	5
12	Pavlikeni	7	−8	3
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0