Pavlikeni v Etar VT II prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Pavlikeni 2–0 Etar VT II PAVLIKENI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pavlikeni win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.339

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pavlikeni are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pavlikeni 53%, draw 21%, Etar VT II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Pavlikeni v Etar VT IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pavlikeni win53%

Draw21%

Etar VT II win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pavlikeni

Etar VT II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northwest

Last match: 11 Oct · Third League - Northwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Etar VT II	6	+5	7
12	Pavlikeni	7	−8	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pavlikeni winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Pavlikeni a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pavlikeni v Etar VT II~~1.96 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pavlikeni win

Published at 55%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pavlikeni win	53%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Etar VT II win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Pavlikeni or draw	73%	–	–
Pavlikeni clean sheet	28%	–	–
Etar VT II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.7 5.8 3.4 1 8.1 9.2 6.2 2.8 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 4.7 5.9 3.8 4 2.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pavlikeni down, Etar VT II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,021 Third League - Northwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pavlikeni at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Etar VT II away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Pavlikeni, 1.31 for Etar VT II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ETA 0–1 PAV · PAV 0–1 ETA · ETA 2–3 PAV · PAV 6–1 ETA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug

PAVLIKENI

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2

ETAR VT II

DLLLW2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 9–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	7	+10	17
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	7	+8	13
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	7	+9	12
4	Partizan	7	+5	12
5	Kom Berkovitsa	7	0	10
6	Sevlievo	6	+2	9
7	Bdin	6	+1	9
8	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
9	Etar VT II	6	+5	7
10	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
11	Spartak Pleven II	7	−12	5
12	Pavlikeni	7	−8	3
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0