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Partizan v Pavlikeni

Partizan

2–0Full time

Pavlikeni

Third League - Northwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Partizan 2–0 Pavlikeni PARTIZAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Partizan win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.439

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Partizan win46%

Draw26%

Pavlikeni win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · partizan winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Partizan a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Partizan win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Pavlikeni win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Partizan or draw	72%	–	–
Partizan clean sheet	38%	–	–
Pavlikeni clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 9.4 10.1 4.7 1 13.6 11.6 6.1 2.1 2 8.7 8.3 4.2 3 4.0 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Partizan down, Pavlikeni across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,016 Third League - Northwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Partizan at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Pavlikeni away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Partizan, 1.00 for Pavlikeni. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAR 2–1 PAV · PAV 0–0 PAR · PAR 1–2 PAV · PAV 1–0 PAR

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest

PARTIZAN

LDWDDL1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

PAVLIKENI

WLLLLL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	6	+8	14
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	6	+8	12
3	Bdin	6	+1	9
4	Kom Berkovitsa	6	0	9
5	Yantra Polski Trambesh	5	+2	8
6	Sevlievo	5	+2	8
7	Chavdar Troyan	5	0	8
8	Partizan	5	0	6
9	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
10	Spartak Pleven II	6	−6	5
11	Pavlikeni	6	−6	3
12	Etar VT II	4	−4	1
13	Juventus Malchika	1	−3	0