Partizan v Chavdar Troyan prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Partizan 1–2 Chavdar Troyan PARTIZAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Partizan win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Partizan are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Partizan 42%, draw 26%, Chavdar Troyan 32%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Partizan v Chavdar TroyanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Partizan win42%

Draw26%

Chavdar Troyan win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Partizan

Chavdar Troyan

6Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northwest

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Partizan	8	+1	12
10	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · partizan winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Partizan a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Partizan v Chavdar Troyan~~1.30 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~5 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Partizan win

Published at 44%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Partizan win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Chavdar Troyan win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Partizan or draw	68%	–	–
Partizan clean sheet	35%	–	–
Chavdar Troyan clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 9.3 10.6 5.5 2.1 1 12.5 11.9 6.7 2.6 2 7.7 7.9 4.3 3 3.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Partizan down, Chavdar Troyan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,028 Third League - Northwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Partizan at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chavdar Troyan away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Partizan, 1.09 for Chavdar Troyan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug

PARTIZAN

WDDLWL1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–4

CHAVDAR TROYAN

DWDWLL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	8	+10	18
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	8	+9	16
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	8	+9	13
4	Kom Berkovitsa	8	+3	13
5	Partizan	8	+1	12
6	Etar VT II	8	+6	10
7	Sevlievo	7	+2	10
8	Bdin	7	−2	9
9	OFK Levski	7	−1	8
10	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
11	Pavlikeni	8	−6	6
12	Spartak Pleven II	9	−13	6
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0