OFK Levski v Partizan prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

OFK Levski 4–0 Partizan OFK LEVSKI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said OFK Levski win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

OFK Levski are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: OFK Levski 49%, draw 26%, Partizan 25%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on OFK Levski v PartizanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

OFK Levski win49%

Draw26%

Partizan win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

OFK Levski

Partizan

21Days since last match7

Last match: 26 Sept · Third League - Northwest

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northwest

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Partizan	7	+5	12
10	OFK Levski	5	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ofk levski winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make OFK Levski a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · OFK Levski v Partizan~~1.37 – 0.88

~~Form · Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
OFK Levski win	49%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Partizan win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
OFK Levski or draw	75%	–	–
OFK Levski clean sheet	42%	–	–
Partizan clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 10.6 10.0 4.1 1 15.0 11.6 5.4 2 9.7 8.3 3.7 3 4.6 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+OFK Levski down, Partizan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,021 Third League - Northwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

OFK Levski at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Partizan away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for OFK Levski, 0.88 for Partizan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~0 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAR 1–0 OFK · OFK 0–0 PAR · OFK 2–0 PAR · PAR 0–0 OFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug

OFK LEVSKI

LDLWD0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

PARTIZAN

DWDDLW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	7	+10	17
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	7	+8	13
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	7	+9	12
4	Partizan	7	+5	12
5	Kom Berkovitsa	7	0	10
6	Sevlievo	6	+2	9
7	Bdin	6	+1	9
8	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
9	Etar VT II	6	+5	7
10	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
11	Spartak Pleven II	7	−12	5
12	Pavlikeni	7	−8	3
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0