Etar VT II v Spartak Pleven II prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Etar VT II 9–3 Spartak Pleven II ETAR VT II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Etar VT II win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Etar VT II win49%

Draw21%

Spartak Pleven II win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Etar VT II

Spartak Pleven II

15Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Spartak Pleven II	6	−6	5
12	Etar VT II	4	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etar vt ii winPublished 11 Oct 23:32

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Etar VT II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Etar VT II win	49%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Spartak Pleven II win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Etar VT II or draw	70%	–	–
Etar VT II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Spartak Pleven II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.5 5.9 3.8 1 7.6 9.1 6.7 3.2 2 6.5 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 4.1 5.5 3.8 4 2.0 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Etar VT II down, Spartak Pleven II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,020 Third League - Northwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Etar VT II at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Pleven II away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Etar VT II, 1.43 for Spartak Pleven II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest

ETAR VT II

LDDLLL0–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–3

SPARTAK PLEVEN II

DDLLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	7	+10	17
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	7	+8	13
3	Kom Berkovitsa	7	0	10
4	Yantra Polski Trambesh	6	+2	9
5	Partizan	6	+2	9
6	Sevlievo	6	+2	9
7	Bdin	6	+1	9
8	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
9	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
10	Spartak Pleven II	6	−6	5
11	Pavlikeni	7	−8	3
12	Etar VT II	4	−4	1
13	Juventus Malchika	1	−3	0