Etar VT II v OFK Levski prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 01:30

Etar VT II 4–1 OFK Levski ETAR VT II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Etar VT II win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.508

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Etar VT II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Etar VT II 42%, draw 23%, OFK Levski 35%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Etar VT II v OFK LevskiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Etar VT II win42%

Draw23%

OFK Levski win35%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Etar VT II

OFK Levski

5Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northwest

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	OFK Levski	6	+2	8
10	Etar VT II	7	+3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · etar vt ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Etar VT II a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Etar VT II v OFK Levski~~1.62 – 1.46

~~Form · Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Etar VT II win

Published at 47%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Etar VT II win	42%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
OFK Levski win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Etar VT II or draw	65%	–	–
Etar VT II clean sheet	24%	–	–
OFK Levski clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.5 7.4 4.9 2.4 1 8.2 10.2 7.5 3.7 2 6.2 8.4 6.0 2.9 3 3.4 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Etar VT II down, OFK Levski across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,026 Third League - Northwest matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.1% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 10 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Etar VT II at home: 2.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). OFK Levski away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Etar VT II, 1.46 for OFK Levski. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ETA 3–3 OFK · OFK 2–2 ETA · OFK 2–1 ETA · ETA 5–2 OFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug

ETAR VT II

DLLLWL2–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 9–3 · 0–2

OFK LEVSKI

LDLWDW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	8	+10	18
2	Yantra Polski Trambesh	8	+9	13
3	Lokomotiv Mezdra	7	+8	13
4	Kom Berkovitsa	8	+3	13
5	Partizan	8	+1	12
6	Sevlievo	7	+2	10
7	Bdin	7	−2	9
8	OFK Levski	6	+2	8
9	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
10	Etar VT II	7	+3	7
11	Pavlikeni	8	−6	6
12	Spartak Pleven II	8	−12	6
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0