Chavdar Troyan v Etar VT II prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Chavdar TroyanDrawEtar VT II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Chavdar Troyan 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chavdar Troyan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chavdar Troyan 59%, draw 19%, Etar VT II 22%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Chavdar Troyan v Etar VT IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Chavdar Troyan win59%

Draw19%

Etar VT II win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:30

RoundNorthwest · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chavdar Troyan

Etar VT II

8Days since last match9

Last match: 23 Oct · Third League - Northwest

Last match: 22 Oct · Third League - Northwest

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Chavdar Troyan	7	−1	11
7	Etar VT II	8	+6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chavdar troyan winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Chavdar Troyan a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chavdar Troyan v Etar VT II~~2.24 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chavdar Troyan win	59%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Etar VT II win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Chavdar Troyan or draw	78%	–	–
Chavdar Troyan clean sheet	30%	–	–
Etar VT II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.3 4.7 2.6 1 7.7 8.3 5.3 2.2 2 7.6 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 5.5 6.4 3.9 4 3.1 3.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chavdar Troyan down, Etar VT II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,031 Third League - Northwest matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Chavdar Troyan at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Etar VT II away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Chavdar Troyan, 1.25 for Etar VT II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 29 Aug

CHAVDAR TROYAN

WDWLLW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 2–1

ETAR VT II

LLWLW0–1 · 1–3 · 9–3 · 0–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	9	+13	21
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	8	+9	16
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	9	+7	13
4	Kom Berkovitsa	8	+3	13
5	Partizan	9	0	12
6	Chavdar Troyan	7	−1	11
7	Etar VT II	8	+6	10
8	Sevlievo	7	+2	10
9	Pavlikeni	9	−4	9
10	Bdin	8	−5	9
11	OFK Levski	7	−1	8
12	Spartak Pleven II	9	−13	6
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0