Bdin v Kom Berkovitsa prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Bdin 2–5 Kom Berkovitsa BDIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bdin win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.984

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bdin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bdin 59%, draw 19%, Kom Berkovitsa 22%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Bdin v Kom BerkovitsaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bdin win59%

Draw19%

Kom Berkovitsa win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bdin

Kom Berkovitsa

13Days since last match7

Last match: 4 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northwest

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Kom Berkovitsa	7	0	10
7	Bdin	6	+1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bdin winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Bdin a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bdin v Kom Berkovitsa~~2.26 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bdin win	59%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Kom Berkovitsa win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Bdin or draw	78%	–	–
Bdin clean sheet	28%	–	–
Kom Berkovitsa clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.8 4.4 2.6 1 7.2 8.0 5.4 2.4 2 7.3 9.0 5.7 2.5 3 5.4 6.6 4.2 4 3.1 3.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bdin down, Kom Berkovitsa across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,021 Third League - Northwest matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.9% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bdin at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kom Berkovitsa away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Bdin, 1.30 for Kom Berkovitsa. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KOM 3–2 BDI · BDI 3–0 KOM · KOM 1–1 BDI · BDI 3–1 KOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 22 Aug

BDIN

LLWWLW1–3 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

KOM BERKOVITSA

DLWWDD2–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	7	+10	17
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	7	+8	13
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	7	+9	12
4	Partizan	7	+5	12
5	Kom Berkovitsa	7	0	10
6	Sevlievo	6	+2	9
7	Bdin	6	+1	9
8	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
9	Etar VT II	6	+5	7
10	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
11	Spartak Pleven II	7	−12	5
12	Pavlikeni	7	−8	3
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0