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Akademik Svishtov v Chavdar Troyan

Akademik Svishtov

4–2Full time

Chavdar Troyan

Third League - Northwest · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Akademik Svishtov 4–2 Chavdar Troyan AKADEMIK SVISHTOV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Akademik Svishtov win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.181

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Akademik Svishtov win66%

Draw22%

Chavdar Troyan win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akademik svishtov winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Akademik Svishtov a 66% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akademik Svishtov win	66%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Chavdar Troyan win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Akademik Svishtov or draw	88%	–	–
Akademik Svishtov clean sheet	59%	–	–
Chavdar Troyan clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.5%

0123450 10.8 6.3 1 18.5 8.7 2.7 2 14.9 7.6 2.2 3 8.7 4.4 4 4.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Akademik Svishtov down, Chavdar Troyan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,016 Third League - Northwest matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Akademik Svishtov at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chavdar Troyan away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Akademik Svishtov, 0.54 for Chavdar Troyan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest

AKADEMIK SVISHTOV

DWWDWW0–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–1

CHAVDAR TROYAN

DWDWL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	6	+8	14
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	6	+8	12
3	Bdin	6	+1	9
4	Kom Berkovitsa	6	0	9
5	Yantra Polski Trambesh	5	+2	8
6	Sevlievo	5	+2	8
7	Chavdar Troyan	5	0	8
8	Partizan	5	0	6
9	OFK Levski	5	−2	5
10	Spartak Pleven II	6	−6	5
11	Pavlikeni	6	−6	3
12	Etar VT II	4	−4	1
13	Juventus Malchika	1	−3	0