Akademik Svishtov v Bdin prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Akademik Svishtov 4–1 Bdin AKADEMIK SVISHTOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Akademik Svishtov win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.175

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akademik Svishtov are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akademik Svishtov 66%, draw 18%, Bdin 16%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Akademik Svishtov v BdinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Akademik Svishtov win66%

Draw18%

Bdin win16%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundNorthwest · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akademik Svishtov

Bdin

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Bulgarian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northwest

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akademik svishtov winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Akademik Svishtov a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Akademik Svishtov v Bdin~~2.23 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 9~~1 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Akademik Svishtov win

Published at 62%, 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akademik Svishtov win	66%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Bdin win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Akademik Svishtov or draw	84%	–	–
Akademik Svishtov clean sheet	41%	–	–
Bdin clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 4.4 4.7 2.1 1 10.2 8.4 4.1 2 10.3 9.1 4.3 3 7.6 6.6 3.0 4 4.4 3.7 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Akademik Svishtov down, Bdin across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,028 Third League - Northwest matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northwest matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Akademik Svishtov at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bdin away: 3.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Akademik Svishtov, 0.92 for Bdin. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~AKA 1–0 BDI · BDI 1–2 AKA · BDI 1–3 AKA · AKA 0–2 BDI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northwest this season · since 29 Aug

AKADEMIK SVISHTOV

WDWWWD2–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

BDIN

LWWLWL0–1 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Akademik Svishtov	8	+10	18
2	Lokomotiv Mezdra	8	+9	16
3	Yantra Polski Trambesh	8	+9	13
4	Kom Berkovitsa	8	+3	13
5	Partizan	8	+1	12
6	Etar VT II	8	+6	10
7	Sevlievo	7	+2	10
8	Bdin	7	−2	9
9	OFK Levski	7	−1	8
10	Chavdar Troyan	6	−2	8
11	Pavlikeni	8	−6	6
12	Spartak Pleven II	9	−13	6
13	Juventus Malchika	4	−16	0