Volov Shumen v Olympic Varna prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Volov ShumenDrawOlympic Varna

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Volov Shumen 89%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volov Shumen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volov Shumen 89%, draw 7%, Olympic Varna 4%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Volov Shumen v Olympic VarnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Volov Shumen win89%

Draw7%

Olympic Varna win4%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volov Shumen

Olympic Varna

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Northeast

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Volov Shumen	11	+19	23
11	Olympic Varna	10	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volov shumen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

89% The market–

Us89%

We make Volov Shumen an 89% chance to win. The model expects 4.2–0.9, and 4–0 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volov Shumen v Olympic Varna~~4.25 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 12~~2 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volov Shumen win	89%	–	–
Draw	7%	–	–
Olympic Varna win	4%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	–	–
Volov Shumen or draw	96%	–	–
Volov Shumen clean sheet	41%	–	–
Olympic Varna clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 7.4%

0123450 1 2.9 2.5 2 5.5 4.9 2.3 3 7.3 6.5 3.0 4 7.4 6.5 3.0 5 6.2 5.4 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volov Shumen down, Olympic Varna across0–5 goals a side shown (74.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,155 Third League - Northeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volov Shumen at home: 4.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic Varna away: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.25 goals for Volov Shumen, 0.91 for Olympic Varna. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VOL 2–0 OLY · OLY 1–2 VOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept

VOLOV SHUMEN

WLLWWD4–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

OLYMPIC VARNA

LLLWLW3–4 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	11	+23	28
2	Volov Shumen	11	+19	23
3	Chernomorets Balchik	10	+10	23
4	Chernolomets 1919	11	+15	21
5	Svetkavitsa 14	11	+5	19
6	Botev Novi Pazar	9	+5	15
7	Septemvri Tervel	9	+3	15
8	Cherno more II	10	+5	14
9	Benkovski Isperih	9	+3	14
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	11	−5	14
11	Olympic Varna	10	−6	12
12	Devnya 2005	10	−10	10
13	Riltzi	10	−12	10
14	Aksakovo	8	−5	8
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	10	−20	7
17	Dorostol	10	−19	1