Volov Shumen v Chernolomets 1919 prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Volov Shumen 2–1 Chernolomets 1919 VOLOV SHUMEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Volov Shumen win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.236

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volov Shumen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volov Shumen 60%, draw 19%, Chernolomets 1919 21%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Volov Shumen v Chernolomets 1919Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Volov Shumen win60%

Draw19%

Chernolomets 1919 win21%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volov Shumen

Chernolomets 1919

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Volov Shumen	9	+18	19
4	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volov shumen winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 02:04 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Volov Shumen a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volov Shumen v Chernolomets 1919~~2.29 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 18~~2 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volov Shumen win

Published at 62%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volov Shumen win	60%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Volov Shumen or draw	79%	–	–
Volov Shumen clean sheet	30%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.0 4.2 2.4 1 7.2 8.1 5.1 2.2 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 5.7 6.8 4.2 4 3.3 4.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volov Shumen down, Chernolomets 1919 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,142 Third League - Northeast matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.29 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volov Shumen at home: 5.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chernolomets 1919 away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Volov Shumen, 1.25 for Chernolomets 1919. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.29

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~VOL 5–0 CHE · CHE 2–1 VOL · CHE 8–0 VOL · VOL 1–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept

VOLOV SHUMEN

WWWLLW9–0 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

CHERNOLOMETS 1919

WWWWWD3–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	9	+19	22
2	Volov Shumen	9	+18	19
3	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
4	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18
5	Chernomorets Balchik	8	+5	17
6	Benkovski Isperih	7	+6	14
7	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
8	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1