Volov Shumen v Cherno more II prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Volov Shumen 2–1 Cherno more II VOLOV SHUMEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volov Shumen win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.116

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volov Shumen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volov Shumen 72%, draw 16%, Cherno more II 12%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Volov Shumen v Cherno more IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Volov Shumen win72%

Draw16%

Cherno more II win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volov Shumen

Cherno more II

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
8	Cherno more II	8	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volov shumen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Volov Shumen a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volov Shumen v Cherno more II~~2.55 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~5 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volov Shumen win	72%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Cherno more II win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Volov Shumen or draw	88%	–	–
Volov Shumen clean sheet	42%	–	–
Cherno more II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 3.5 3.4 1 8.8 7.2 3.3 2 10.3 8.8 3.9 3 8.6 7.2 3.2 4 5.5 4.6 2.0 5 3.0 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Volov Shumen down, Cherno more II across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,140 Third League - Northeast matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volov Shumen at home: 5.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Cherno more II away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Volov Shumen, 0.88 for Cherno more II. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–0 VOL · VOL 2–1 CHE · VOL 0–1 CHE · CHE 5–0 VOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug

VOLOV SHUMEN

WWWWLL3–0 · 9–0 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

CHERNO MORE II

LWWDLD0–1 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	9	+19	22
2	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
3	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18
4	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
5	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
6	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
7	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
8	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1