Ustrem Donchevo v Septemvri Dragoevo prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ustrem DonchevoDrawSeptemvri Dragoevo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ustrem Donchevo 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ustrem Donchevo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ustrem Donchevo 55%, draw 18%, Septemvri Dragoevo 27%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Ustrem Donchevo v Septemvri DragoevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ustrem Donchevo win55%

Draw18%

Septemvri Dragoevo win27%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ustrem Donchevo

Septemvri Dragoevo

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Northeast

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ustrem donchevo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Ustrem Donchevo a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ustrem Donchevo v Septemvri Dragoevo~~2.60 – 1.79

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ustrem Donchevo win	55%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Ustrem Donchevo or draw	73%	–	–
Ustrem Donchevo clean sheet	18%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 2.8 2.2 1 3.8 5.9 5.2 3.1 2 4.4 7.3 6.3 3.7 3 3.6 6.1 5.2 3.1 4 2.4 3.9 3.4 2.0 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Ustrem Donchevo down, Septemvri Dragoevo across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,155 Third League - Northeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ustrem Donchevo at home: 2.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Dragoevo away: 0.80 scored, 2.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.60 goals for Ustrem Donchevo, 1.79 for Septemvri Dragoevo. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept

USTREM DONCHEVO

LLDLWW2–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–3 · 2–1

SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1