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Ustrem Donchevo v Dorostol

Ustrem Donchevo

4–3Full time

Dorostol

Third League - Northeast · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Ustrem Donchevo 4–3 Dorostol USTREM DONCHEVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ustrem Donchevo win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ustrem Donchevo win71%

Draw15%

Dorostol win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ustrem donchevo winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Ustrem Donchevo a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ustrem Donchevo win	71%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Dorostol win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Ustrem Donchevo or draw	86%	–	–
Ustrem Donchevo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Dorostol clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.6 1 5.4 6.0 3.7 2 6.9 7.9 4.7 3 6.4 7.1 4.2 4 4.6 5.1 3.0 5 2.9 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Ustrem Donchevo down, Dorostol across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,127 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ustrem Donchevo at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dorostol away: 1.00 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.93 goals for Ustrem Donchevo, 1.18 for Dorostol. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UST 4–1 DOR · DOR 1–0 UST · UST 1–1 DOR · DOR 0–1 UST

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast

USTREM DONCHEVO

LLLLDL2–3 · 1–4 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

DOROSTOL

LLLLDL0–4 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	7	+18	16
2	Ludogorets III	7	+13	16
3	Svetkavitsa 14	8	+9	16
4	Chernolomets 1919	7	+10	14
5	Chernomorets Balchik	6	+6	14
6	Benkovski Isperih	5	+8	11
7	Septemvri Tervel	5	+7	11
8	Cherno more II	7	+4	10
9	Botev Novi Pazar	6	+3	9
10	Riltzi	7	−7	9
11	Septemvri Dragoevo	7	−5	8
12	Devnya 2005	7	−7	7
13	Fratria II	8	−16	7
14	Olympic Varna	7	−6	6
15	Aksakovo	6	−11	4
16	Ustrem Donchevo	8	−13	1
17	Dorostol	6	−13	1