Svetkavitsa 14 v Olympic Varna prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Svetkavitsa 14 3–0 Olympic Varna SVETKAVITSA 14 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Svetkavitsa 14 win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Svetkavitsa 14 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Svetkavitsa 14 50%, draw 22%, Olympic Varna 28%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Svetkavitsa 14 v Olympic VarnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Svetkavitsa 14 win50%

Draw22%

Olympic Varna win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Svetkavitsa 14

Olympic Varna

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Svetkavitsa 14	9	+3	16
12	Olympic Varna	8	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · svetkavitsa 14 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Svetkavitsa 14 a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Svetkavitsa 14 v Olympic Varna~~1.80 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 9~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Svetkavitsa 14 win	50%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Olympic Varna win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Svetkavitsa 14 or draw	72%	–	–
Svetkavitsa 14 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Olympic Varna clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.8 6.5 3.9 1 8.8 10.0 6.5 2.9 2 7.4 9.0 5.7 2.5 3 4.5 5.5 3.5 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Svetkavitsa 14 down, Olympic Varna across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,135 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Svetkavitsa 14 at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic Varna away: 2.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Svetkavitsa 14, 1.28 for Olympic Varna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OLY 3–1 SVE · SVE 2–2 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug

SVETKAVITSA 14

DWLLWL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–6

OLYMPIC VARNA

LLLLLW1–5 · 1–3 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	8	+16	19
2	Chernolomets 1919	8	+14	17
3	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
4	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
5	Svetkavitsa 14	9	+3	16
6	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
7	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
8	Septemvri Tervel	6	+4	11
9	Devnya 2005	8	−5	10
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
12	Olympic Varna	8	−5	9
13	Septemvri Dragoevo	8	−7	8
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Fratria II	8	−16	7
16	Ustrem Donchevo	9	−12	4
17	Dorostol	7	−14	1