Septemvri Tervel v Chernolomets 1919 prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Septemvri Tervel 0–0 Chernolomets 1919 SEPTEMVRI TERVEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Tervel win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.979

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Tervel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Tervel 56%, draw 22%, Chernolomets 1919 22%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Tervel v Chernolomets 1919Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Tervel win56%

Draw22%

Chernolomets 1919 win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Tervel

Chernolomets 1919

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Chernolomets 1919	8	+14	17
8	Septemvri Tervel	6	+4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri tervel winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Septemvri Tervel a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Tervel v Chernolomets 1919~~1.89 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Tervel win	56%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel or draw	78%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel clean sheet	35%	–	–
Chernolomets 1919 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.1%

0123450 5.3 6.1 3.1 1 10.1 9.9 5.5 2.1 2 9.0 9.3 5.1 3 5.7 5.9 3.2 4 2.8 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Tervel down, Chernolomets 1919 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,135 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Septemvri Tervel at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chernolomets 1919 away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Septemvri Tervel, 1.09 for Chernolomets 1919. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SEP 0–4 CHE · CHE 3–0 SEP · CHE 1–1 SEP · SEP 3–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 22 Aug

SEPTEMVRI TERVEL

DWWDWL1–1 · 5–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–3

CHERNOLOMETS 1919

DWWWWW1–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	8	+16	19
2	Chernolomets 1919	8	+14	17
3	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
4	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
5	Svetkavitsa 14	9	+3	16
6	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
7	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
8	Septemvri Tervel	6	+4	11
9	Devnya 2005	8	−5	10
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
12	Olympic Varna	8	−5	9
13	Septemvri Dragoevo	8	−7	8
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Fratria II	8	−16	7
16	Ustrem Donchevo	9	−12	4
17	Dorostol	7	−14	1