Septemvri Tervel v Cherno more II prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Septemvri TervelDrawCherno more II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Septemvri Tervel 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Tervel are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Tervel 63%, draw 21%, Cherno more II 16%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Tervel v Cherno more IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Tervel win63%

Draw21%

Cherno more II win16%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Tervel

Cherno more II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Northeast

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri tervel winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Septemvri Tervel a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Tervel v Cherno more II~~1.86 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 20 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Tervel win	63%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Cherno more II win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel or draw	84%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel clean sheet	47%	–	–
Cherno more II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 7.5 6.1 2.2 1 13.8 9.7 3.9 2 12.2 9.1 3.5 3 7.6 5.7 2.2 4 3.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Tervel down, Cherno more II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,155 Third League - Northeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Septemvri Tervel at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cherno more II away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Septemvri Tervel, 0.77 for Cherno more II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–2 SEP · SEP 2–0 CHE · CHE 0–1 SEP · SEP 3–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 20 Sept

SEPTEMVRI TERVEL

DWLDWL1–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

CHERNO MORE II

WDLDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1