Septemvri Dragoevo v Fratria II prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Septemvri Dragoevo 4–1 Fratria II SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Dragoevo win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.181

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Dragoevo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Dragoevo 65%, draw 17%, Fratria II 17%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Dragoevo v Fratria IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Dragoevo win65%

Draw17%

Fratria II win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Dragoevo

Fratria II

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri dragoevo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Septemvri Dragoevo a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Dragoevo v Fratria II~~2.47 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~10 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Septemvri Dragoevo win

Published at 69%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Dragoevo win	65%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Fratria II win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo or draw	83%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Fratria II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.7 3.6 1 7.1 7.3 4.4 2 7.9 8.9 5.2 2.1 3 6.4 7.2 4.2 4 4.0 4.5 2.6 5 2.1 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Dragoevo down, Fratria II across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Septemvri Dragoevo at home: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Fratria II away: 0.67 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.47 goals for Septemvri Dragoevo, 1.17 for Fratria II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept

SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO

LDLLWL1–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

FRATRIA II

LDLWWL0–9 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1