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Septemvri Dragoevo v Devnya 2005

Septemvri Dragoevo

0–2Full time

Devnya 2005

Third League - Northeast · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Septemvri Dragoevo 0–2 Devnya 2005 SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Dragoevo win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.008

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Septemvri Dragoevo win59%

Draw19%

Devnya 2005 win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri dragoevo winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Septemvri Dragoevo a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Dragoevo win	59%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Devnya 2005 win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo or draw	79%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo clean sheet	31%	–	–
Devnya 2005 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.7 4.7 2.6 1 7.9 8.5 5.2 2.2 2 7.9 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 5.7 6.4 3.8 4 3.3 3.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Dragoevo down, Devnya 2005 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,127 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Septemvri Dragoevo at home: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Devnya 2005 away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Septemvri Dragoevo, 1.20 for Devnya 2005. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast

SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO

LDWLDL1–4 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–3

DEVNYA 2005

LLLDLW0–2 · 0–3 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volov Shumen	7	+18	16
2	Ludogorets III	7	+13	16
3	Svetkavitsa 14	8	+9	16
4	Chernolomets 1919	7	+10	14
5	Chernomorets Balchik	6	+6	14
6	Benkovski Isperih	5	+8	11
7	Septemvri Tervel	5	+7	11
8	Cherno more II	7	+4	10
9	Botev Novi Pazar	6	+3	9
10	Riltzi	7	−7	9
11	Septemvri Dragoevo	7	−5	8
12	Devnya 2005	7	−7	7
13	Fratria II	8	−16	7
14	Olympic Varna	7	−6	6
15	Aksakovo	6	−11	4
16	Ustrem Donchevo	8	−13	1
17	Dorostol	6	−13	1