Septemvri Dragoevo v Botev Novi Pazar prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Septemvri Dragoevo 0–2 Botev Novi Pazar SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Dragoevo win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Dragoevo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Septemvri Dragoevo 52%, draw 21%, Botev Novi Pazar 26%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Septemvri Dragoevo v Botev Novi PazarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Septemvri Dragoevo win52%

Draw21%

Botev Novi Pazar win26%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Septemvri Dragoevo

Botev Novi Pazar

4Days since last match11

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri dragoevo winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Septemvri Dragoevo a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Septemvri Dragoevo v Botev Novi Pazar~~1.91 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~9 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Septemvri Dragoevo win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Septemvri Dragoevo win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Botev Novi Pazar win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo or draw	74%	–	–
Septemvri Dragoevo clean sheet	29%	–	–
Botev Novi Pazar clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.3 5.9 3.5 1 8.5 9.5 6.1 2.7 2 7.6 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 4.9 5.8 3.6 4 2.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Septemvri Dragoevo down, Botev Novi Pazar across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,142 Third League - Northeast matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Septemvri Dragoevo at home: 2.25 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Botev Novi Pazar away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Septemvri Dragoevo, 1.27 for Botev Novi Pazar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug

SEPTEMVRI DRAGOEVO

WLDLLW4–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0

BOTEV NOVI PAZAR

WDLDDL5–1 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	9	+19	22
2	Volov Shumen	9	+18	19
3	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
4	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18
5	Chernomorets Balchik	8	+5	17
6	Benkovski Isperih	7	+6	14
7	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
8	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1