Riltzi v Chernomorets Balchik prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Riltzi 0–3 Chernomorets Balchik CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chernomorets Balchik win~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.085

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chernomorets Balchik are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Riltzi 9%, draw 15%, Chernomorets Balchik 77%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Riltzi v Chernomorets BalchikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Riltzi win9%

Draw15%

Chernomorets Balchik win77%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Riltzi

Chernomorets Balchik

11Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 18 Oct · Third League - Northeast

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chernomorets Balchik	8	+5	17
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chernomorets balchik winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

77% The market–

Us77%

We make Chernomorets Balchik a 77% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–2.5, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Riltzi v Chernomorets Balchik~~0.63 – 2.47

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chernomorets Balchik win

Published at 78%, 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Riltzi win	9%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik win	77%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Riltzi or draw	23%	–	–
Riltzi clean sheet	9%	–	–
Chernomorets Balchik clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.5%

0123450 4.8 11.6 13.5 10.9 6.9 3.71 3.3 6.8 8.1 6.4 3.9 2.02 2.4 2.7 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Riltzi down, Chernomorets Balchik across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,142 Third League - Northeast matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.88 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Riltzi at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chernomorets Balchik away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.63 goals for Riltzi, 2.47 for Chernomorets Balchik. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.88

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RIL 0–7 CHE · CHE 2–1 RIL · RIL 0–3 CHE · CHE 1–1 RIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug

RILTZI

WWLLLD1–0 · 4–1 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 2–2

CHERNOMORETS BALCHIK

WWDWWL4–1 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	9	+19	22
2	Volov Shumen	9	+18	19
3	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
4	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18
5	Chernomorets Balchik	8	+5	17
6	Benkovski Isperih	7	+6	14
7	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
8	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1