Riltzi v Botev Novi Pazar prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RiltziDrawBotev Novi Pazar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Botev Novi Pazar 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Botev Novi Pazar just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Riltzi 37%, draw 23%, Botev Novi Pazar 40%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Riltzi v Botev Novi PazarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Riltzi win37%

Draw23%

Botev Novi Pazar win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Riltzi

Botev Novi Pazar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · botev novi pazar winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Botev Novi Pazar a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Riltzi v Botev Novi Pazar~~1.45 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Riltzi win	37%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Botev Novi Pazar win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Riltzi or draw	60%	–	–
Riltzi clean sheet	23%	–	–
Botev Novi Pazar clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 8.5 6.1 3.2 1 8.0 10.5 8.0 4.1 2 5.6 7.8 5.6 2.8 3 2.8 3.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Riltzi down, Botev Novi Pazar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,155 Third League - Northeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Riltzi at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Botev Novi Pazar away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Riltzi, 1.51 for Botev Novi Pazar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~0 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BOT 1–0 RIL · RIL 2–0 BOT · BOT 1–0 RIL · RIL 4–0 BOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept

RILTZI

LLLDLL2–4 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–2

BOTEV NOVI PAZAR

LDDLWW0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1