Riltzi v Aksakovo prediction · Third League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · no result

Aksakovo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Riltzi 36%, draw 21%, Aksakovo 44%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Riltzi v AksakovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · no result reported, not graded

Riltzi win36%

Draw21%

Aksakovo win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Riltzi

Aksakovo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aksakovo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · no result reported, not graded

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Aksakovo a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Riltzi v Aksakovo~~1.70 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Riltzi win	36%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Aksakovo win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Riltzi or draw	56%	–	–
Riltzi clean sheet	16%	–	–
Aksakovo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.8 5.6 5.0 3.2 1 5.2 8.4 7.9 5.0 2.5 2 4.1 7.2 6.5 4.1 2.1 3 2.4 4.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Riltzi down, Aksakovo across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,135 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Riltzi at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Aksakovo away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Riltzi, 1.93 for Aksakovo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RIL 1–1 AKS · AKS 2–0 RIL · RIL 2–2 AKS · AKS 4–3 RIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 26 Aug

RILTZI

WWLLLD1–0 · 4–1 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 2–2

AKSAKOVO

LDLLWW1–6 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	8	+16	19
2	Chernolomets 1919	8	+14	17
3	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
4	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
5	Svetkavitsa 14	9	+3	16
6	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
7	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
8	Septemvri Tervel	6	+4	11
9	Devnya 2005	8	−5	10
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
12	Olympic Varna	8	−5	9
13	Septemvri Dragoevo	8	−7	8
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Fratria II	8	−16	7
16	Ustrem Donchevo	9	−12	4
17	Dorostol	7	−14	1