Olympic Varna v Riltzi prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Olympic VarnaDrawRiltzi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Olympic Varna 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympic Varna are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympic Varna 67%, draw 16%, Riltzi 18%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Olympic Varna v RiltziBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Olympic Varna win67%

Draw16%

Riltzi win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympic Varna

Riltzi

7Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olympic varna winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Olympic Varna a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympic Varna v Riltzi~~2.84 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~13 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympic Varna win

Published at 68%, 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympic Varna win	67%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Riltzi win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Olympic Varna or draw	82%	–	–
Olympic Varna clean sheet	26%	–	–
Riltzi clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.5 1 4.7 5.7 4.1 2 6.0 7.9 5.4 2.6 3 5.4 7.2 4.9 2.3 4 3.9 5.0 3.4 5 2.3 3.0 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympic Varna down, Riltzi across0–5 goals a side shown (91.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Olympic Varna at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Riltzi away: 0.83 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.84 goals for Olympic Varna, 1.39 for Riltzi. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~OLY 2–1 RIL · RIL 0–2 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 5 Sept

OLYMPIC VARNA

LLLLWL1–3 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

RILTZI

WLLLDL4–1 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1