Ludogorets III v Dorostol prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Ludogorets III 3–0 Dorostol LUDOGORETS III WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ludogorets III win~~94%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.006

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ludogorets III are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ludogorets III 94%, draw 5%, Dorostol 2%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Ludogorets III v DorostolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ludogorets III win94%

Draw5%

Dorostol win2%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ludogorets III

Dorostol

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Third League - Northeast

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ludogorets iii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

94% The market–

Us94%

We make Ludogorets III a 94% chance to win. The model expects 4.2–0.4, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ludogorets III v Dorostol~~4.21 – 0.39

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 25 v 1~~1 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ludogorets III win	94%	–	–
Draw	5%	–	–
Dorostol win	2%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Ludogorets III or draw	98%	–	–
Ludogorets III clean sheet	68%	–	–
Dorostol clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 12.0%

0123450 1 5.3 2.2 2 9.6 3.9 3 12.0 4.8 4 11.8 4.4 5 9.7 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ludogorets III down, Dorostol across0–5 goals a side shown (74.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,147 Third League - Northeast matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.3% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ludogorets III at home: 3.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dorostol away: 1.33 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.21 goals for Ludogorets III, 0.39 for Dorostol. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DOR 0–9 LUD · LUD 1–1 DOR · DOR 0–2 LUD · LUD 1–0 DOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 6 Sept

LUDOGORETS III

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

DOROSTOL

LDLLLL1–5 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1