Fratria II v Ustrem Donchevo prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Fratria II 1–2 Ustrem Donchevo USTREM DONCHEVO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ustrem Donchevo win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.484

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ustrem Donchevo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fratria II 37%, draw 19%, Ustrem Donchevo 44%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Fratria II v Ustrem DonchevoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fratria II win37%

Draw19%

Ustrem Donchevo win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fratria II

Ustrem Donchevo

14Days since last match7

Last match: 3 Oct · Third League - Northeast

Last match: 10 Oct · Third League - Northeast

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Fratria II	8	−16	7
16	Ustrem Donchevo	9	−12	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ustrem donchevo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Ustrem Donchevo a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.4, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fratria II v Ustrem Donchevo~~2.15 – 2.35

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fratria II win	37%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Ustrem Donchevo win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Fratria II or draw	56%	–	–
Fratria II clean sheet	11%	–	–
Ustrem Donchevo clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.6%

0123450 3.1 3.3 2.5 1 2.9 5.7 6.5 4.9 2.9 2 2.7 6.0 6.6 5.0 3.0 3 4.2 4.6 3.6 2.1 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fratria II down, Ustrem Donchevo across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,135 Third League - Northeast matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fratria II at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ustrem Donchevo away: 1.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Fratria II, 2.35 for Ustrem Donchevo. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UST 5–0 FRA · FRA 2–4 UST · FRA 1–3 UST · UST 1–0 FRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 30 Aug

FRATRIA II

LLDLWW0–1 · 0–9 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

USTREM DONCHEVO

LLLDLW1–4 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	8	+16	19
2	Chernolomets 1919	8	+14	17
3	Chernomorets Balchik	7	+7	17
4	Volov Shumen	8	+17	16
5	Svetkavitsa 14	9	+3	16
6	Benkovski Isperih	6	+4	11
7	Cherno more II	8	+4	11
8	Septemvri Tervel	6	+4	11
9	Devnya 2005	8	−5	10
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
12	Olympic Varna	8	−5	9
13	Septemvri Dragoevo	8	−7	8
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Fratria II	8	−16	7
16	Ustrem Donchevo	9	−12	4
17	Dorostol	7	−14	1