Fratria II v Ludogorets III prediction · Third League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fratria IIDrawLudogorets III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ludogorets III 86%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ludogorets III are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fratria II 5%, draw 9%, Ludogorets III 86%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Fratria II v Ludogorets IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Fratria II win5%

Draw9%

Ludogorets III win86%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fratria II

Ludogorets III

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ludogorets iii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

86% The market–

Us86%

We make Ludogorets III an 86% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–3.4, and 0–3 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fratria II v Ludogorets III~~0.64 – 3.39

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 25~~16 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fratria II win	5%	–	–
Draw	9%	–	–
Ludogorets III win	86%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Fratria II or draw	14%	–	–
Fratria II clean sheet	4%	–	–
Ludogorets III clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 11.1%

0123450 6.6 10.3 11.1 9.3 6.51 4.0 6.4 6.8 5.6 3.82 2.2 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fratria II down, Ludogorets III across0–5 goals a side shown (86.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,155 Third League - Northeast matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fratria II at home: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ludogorets III away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.64 goals for Fratria II, 3.39 for Ludogorets III. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FRA 0–4 LUD · LUD 1–0 FRA · FRA 0–1 LUD · LUD 10–0 FRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 12 Sept

FRATRIA II

DLWWLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–4

LUDOGORETS III

WWWWWW3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	10	+20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	+19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	+8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	+13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	+5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	+5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	+4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	−8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Riltzi	9	−10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	9	−16	1