Dorostol v Septemvri Tervel prediction · Third League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Dorostol 0–1 Septemvri Tervel SEPTEMVRI TERVEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Septemvri Tervel win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.099

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Septemvri Tervel are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dorostol 9%, draw 16%, Septemvri Tervel 75%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Dorostol v Septemvri TervelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Dorostol win9%

Draw16%

Septemvri Tervel win75%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundNortheast · matchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dorostol

Septemvri Tervel

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Third League - Northeast

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · septemvri tervel winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Septemvri Tervel a 75% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–2.3, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dorostol v Septemvri Tervel~~0.63 – 2.35

~~Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 12~~17 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Septemvri Tervel win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dorostol win	9%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel win	75%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Dorostol or draw	25%	–	–
Dorostol clean sheet	11%	–	–
Septemvri Tervel clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.7%

0123450 5.4 12.4 13.7 10.6 6.4 3.31 3.7 7.3 8.2 6.2 3.6 2 2.5 2.7 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dorostol down, Septemvri Tervel across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,142 Third League - Northeast matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Third League - Northeast matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dorostol at home: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Septemvri Tervel away: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.63 goals for Dorostol, 2.35 for Septemvri Tervel. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DOR 0–3 SEP · SEP 6–0 DOR · SEP 2–0 DOR · DOR 0–2 SEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Third League - Northeast this season · since 29 Aug

DOROSTOL

LLDLLL0–3 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–1

SEPTEMVRI TERVEL

WWDWLD5–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ludogorets III	9	+19	22
2	Volov Shumen	9	+18	19
3	Svetkavitsa 14	10	+6	19
4	Chernolomets 1919	9	+14	18
5	Chernomorets Balchik	8	+5	17
6	Benkovski Isperih	7	+6	14
7	Septemvri Tervel	7	+4	12
8	Cherno more II	9	+3	11
9	Septemvri Dragoevo	9	−6	11
10	Riltzi	8	−7	10
11	Devnya 2005	9	−8	10
12	Botev Novi Pazar	7	+2	9
13	Olympic Varna	9	−8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	−5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	−11	7
16	Fratria II	9	−17	7
17	Dorostol	8	−15	1